The Cash flow template…

download the excel template

Many visitors who visited my 3 parts article that talks about how to make a financial plan that rocks, and also those who red the article about “how to valuate your startup company” asked me for the template i used…

here is a link for the template, enjoy …

Cash flow planing and valuation template based on DCF

this template is well explained in the four blogs below

How to Rock your start-up project Financial plan – Part.1 (Build the template)

How to Rock your start-up project Financial plan – Part.2 (Make different scenarios)

How to Rock your start-up project Financial plan – Part.3. (Financial decision criterion)

How much your Software startup company worth

the first three blogs show how to plan your cash flow, the fourth shows you how to calculate the discount rate…

if you find it useful and helpful, please don’t forget to share it and to follow my blog.

Thank you all

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How much your Software startup company worth

business_valuations

Three years ago, i planned to raise an investment in my company. The first question i asked myself then was, How much equity the investor will take for the money he will invest. That was a very hard question …

The first thing came to my mind then is to go for a financial expert to do the company valuation. Their rates was shocking and i get back and decided to do it myself. From the first moment i decided that, i realized that it will take a lot of time, could be months. I am an engineer, but i already have a good accounting background from a 3 months dedicated course. And hence I started by Google and red a lot of articles about “company’s valuation” just to decide the study road map. After a one month of reading articles. i searched for a course about financing. Coursera was a very good destination and i got a course there for 8 weeks from Michigan university. After that course, i went back and red again all the articles i red before. and you can definitely say that this article is a summary of my findings. I hope you like it and find it useful, if you do please share it and leave me your feedback and comments.

For a company that all its value is in intangible asset like a brand or software or portal, You will not probably find a way to valuate it except with the “discounting cash flow” approach. In this approach, you valuate your company with the business it can generate in the future. simply, how much business you can do in the future defines your current value.

to work with this approach you need to know two major things:

  1. Your Sales and profit forecast over five years at least.
  2. The discounting Rate (the rate you going to use to discount your future cash flow into present value).

discounting approach

In a recent article i have wrote about “how to build a financial cash flow plan“. and Soon i will write about “how to build your business plan“. This article is focusing on how to calculate Discount rate.

A major factor in applying discounted cash flow approach is the discount rate. Discount Rate is calculated based on three sub factors, below we will talk about how these three factors are calculated and how they are affected by the country you live in. I have made two examples, one from USA where i live and invest now, and the other from Egypt, where i used to do business before.

Rate of Return of the risk free:

The risk-free rate of return is the theoretical rate of return of an investment with zero risk. It is a theoretical concept as there is no risk free business. and it is used as starting point for calculating the cost of equity and capital.  For instance, a bank considering a loan application will start with the risk-free rate and then add additional interest for other risk components such as default risk, inflation risk, and, if the loan is to a foreign company, currency risk.

Usually it is calculated based on the return on government bonds as it could be the most safe investments.

In Jan 2015

  • Return on USA ponds is expected to reach 3.4% at the end of 2015 for 10 years bond.
  • And it is almost 15.27% for Egyptian government over the same period.

Definitely we can not take the market risk free factor as a discount factor for our business. the Discount factor in other project rather than government bond is higher, because the risk is higher, so how much higher is it …

Market Risk premium:

Market Risk premium are percentages that you just pick it up from the internet, we don’t much care about how it has been calculated. It reflects the economical and political stability of the country.

As per Jan 2015:

Egypt: Moody’s rating: Caa1, country risk premium is 4.42%.
USA: Moody’s rating: Aaa, Country risk premium is 0.00%

In 2011

Egypt: Moody’s rating: Ba1, and the country risk premium is 3.6%

Ref: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html

Beta industry factor:

In finance, Beta is generally a measure of risk. so each industry has a calculated beta factor. it changes every year based on global economy health. You can check beta factor of each industry from this link:

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html

By jan 2015…
software (entertainment): 1.12
Software (internet): 1.19
Software (system and applications): 1.1

so based on three mentioned factors and considering that i work in the software (internet) industry then the discounting  factor in Jan 2015 is as follow:

For USA: (3.4%+0.00%) * 1.19 = 4.046%.

whereas for Egypt: (15.27%+4.42%) * 1.19 = 23.43%

Now you know the Discounting factor in which you going to use to discount all your future cash flow that your company can make … into today value.

Now you must have cash flow forecast for 5 years ahead. please review my article ” How to Rock your start-up project Financial plan – Part.1 (Build the template)”  and i prefer you plan your forecast based on this template.

Also review the article “How to Rock your start-up project Financial plan – Part.3. (Financial decision criterion’s)”  to know how to calculate your project Net present value. when you calculate your Net present value, you will use the discounting factor we calculated before.

Many entrepreneurs stop here and assume that the NPV is equal to their startup value, actually i did that before… 🙂

I think you may do that, if your idea is not tested in the market yet, and you have no good prove that your idea can fulfill and meet your forecast expectations. But if your idea is already generating money and you used your cash flow history as a prove that you can fulfill and meet your forecast, then your will be less estimating your company value if you sold it at the NPV.

You have calculated your NPV based on a 5 years cash flow. In real life, your project will not stop and terminate at the end of the 5 years… right ? … your project will continue generate money, and the company could last for decades making profits. how do you include this factor.

Here comes a factor named:  Perpetuity net cash flow (NCF). A perpetuity is a constant stream of identical cash flows with no end. we will keep things simple and make it equal to the net profit at the end of the fifth year. (assuming that you continue generate the same profit every year, not more nor less)

Then we will calculate the “Future value of perpetuity NCF” by dividing the perpetuity NCF over the discount rate calculated above.

Then we will calculate the Present value of the Future value of perpetuity NCF.

And finally the project value is equal to the NPV over the 5 years and the present value of the Future Value of perpetuity NCF.

Feeling lost 🙂 …. here is the Example…

I will make an example using a cash flow stream of one of my projects. i will assume that the project will have the same cash flow stream in Egypt and USA and valuate the project based on the discounting rate calculated above.

In Case the project is valuated in Egypt:

eGYPT

NPV = 1,115,929.50$
Perpetuity net cash flow (NCF) = 2,397,099.94$ (net profit in the last year).
Future value of perpetuity NCF = Perpetuity net cash flow / Discount factor = 2,397,099.94/0.2343 = 10,230,900.30$
Present value of perpetuity NCF = 3,571,167.39$ (see the following figure to know this value is calculated)

Then the company value Equals 1,115,929.50 + 3,571,167.39$ = 4,687,096.89$

PV

Now lets repeat it with the discount factor in USA.

NPV = 2,769,570.18$
Perpetuity net cash flow (NCF) = 2,397,099.94$ (net profit in the last year).
Future value of perpetuity NCF = Perpetuity net cash flow / Discount factor = 2,397,099.94/0.04046 = 59,246,167.56$
Present value of perpetuity NCF = 48,588,408.69$

Then the company value Equals 2,769,570.18 + 48,588,408,69$ = 51,358,050.87$

An important note i should mention here, is that i compared USA to Egypt, assuming that the project will make the same cash flow stream in both countries which is not right, and assuming the same taxation rate, which is not right too.
I just fixed these two conditions to have some insights on the effects of Risk free return and market risk premium.

I did my best to simplify it, if you have a basic knowledge about financing, i mean you know about the NPV, FV, …etc. then mostly you will not find a problem understanding this article. If not, you may need to read about it from the internet. and you may follow the steps i provided to you in this article even if you don’t fully understand it.

Finally, if you like it please share it. If you have any question, i will be very happy to answer you…

You can also download the template from Here
download the template

Why should you write a will even if you are 18 years old …

writing a will

Most of us don’t want to think about dying. It’s not only the old that die. The news is full of stories about unexpected deaths – a pile up on the highway, climbing and skiing accidents, drownings and etc.

Anyone over the age of 18 years and of sound mind should have a valid and up-to-date will. If you die without making a will, everything you own will be distributed according to the law in your State – which means your wishes will be ignored.

Having a valid and up-to-date will should be a central part of your generational planning strategy. This applies irrespective of the size of your estate or how you wish it to be distributed.

While there is no limit on the time that a will remains valid, a review every 3-4 years is recommended.

It is important that reviews are also conducted whenever your circumstances change, if you decide to alter your beneficiaries or if you buy or sell an asset.

Some people think that making a will is something you do once and can then forget about. For most of us, nothing could be further from the truth. The only thing that can be worse than not having a will, is having a will which is no longer relevant to your circumstances.

So what happens if I don’t have a will?

Anyone who passes away without a will is said to have died ‘intestate‘. In such cases the assets belonging to the deceased are distributed according to State law. It is possible that such laws will not be consistent with your wishes and consequently those who you wish to benefit from your estate might not do so.

The law is based on what is likely to be suitable distribution of your assets – and this might work for some people. However, it may be unsuitable to you and your loved ones in some circumstances. For example:

  • If you are in a de facto relationship then, depending on the length of that relationship, your partner may not be provided for adequately.
  • If you have been divorced and then remarried, your new spouse, or their own family, may benefit from assets you might want to pass on to children of your previous relationship.
  • Your property might go to an estranged relative, or to wealthy relatives who do not need your assets.
  • You are concerned about an intended beneficiary’s ability to preserve and manage their inheritance.
  • In some States, if you have no close relatives your property will be given to the government.
  • Muslims usually wants their wealth to be distributed according to their religion regulations, and hence -as a Muslim- dying without a will that describe how Islam religion controls the distribution of your wealth will result in ignorance of these regulations and follow the state laws.

It’s unfortunate how many people believe that estate planning is only for wealthy people. People at all economic levels benefit from an estate plan. Upon death, an estate plan legally protects and distributes property based on your wishes and the needs of your family and/or survivors with as little tax as possible.

A will is the most practical first step in estate planning; it makes clear how you want your property to be distributed after you die.

It may help to get legal advice when writing a will, particularly when it comes to understanding all the rules of the estate disposition process in your state. Some states, for instance, have community-property laws that entitle your surviving spouse to keep half of your wealth after you die no matter what percentage you leave him or her. Fees for the execution of a will vary according to its complexity.

Most of people might postpone their will preparation because of the high cost of attorney or the legal advice. At average it will cost between 400$ to 800$, and it will cost that much every time you want to update it …!

At legalshield we provide you, a will preparation, and annual reviews and updates for you, your spouse, and covered family members and other more valuable services for only 20$ per month …!

Legalshield believes everyone deserves legal protection. And for over 40 years, Legalshield has been providing members with affordable attorney access for low monthly premium. LegalShield currently protecting and serving over 1.4 million families across USA and Canada.

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